STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF CROWD PSYCHOLOGY

EARLY-WARNING SYSTEMS
MAJOR STOCK MARKET TOPS AND BOTTOMS
  PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS
I offer a private consulting service for both high-net-worth investors and institutions.  In essence, I crunch proprietary numbers from my research. And these lead to both buy and sell (e.g. reduce equity exposure) signals when extremes are reached. I am not involved with very short-term trading. I deal with both conservative and higher-risk exposure clients. The latter will utilize leveraged ETFs (both long and short) when strong and actionable signals come into play.

My strength is outside-the-box quantitative analysis, including numerous indicators unknown to Wall Street. As such, I can take a fresh and unbiased approach to evaluating market prospects. And as you may know from Mark Hulbert’s discussion of me, my focus is on the major turning points, signaled from extreme readings in my proprietary models. I do not utilize the usual technical or cycle analysis, market timing, or charting techniques common in Wall Street.  A number of these involve conventional trend following strategies, with a focus on indexes moving above or below popular moving averages. My analysis is geared to anticipate major shifts in market direction, not to follow such changes after they begin.

My signals (especially at major tops) invariably involve early warnings, as components of my lethal triad build up sequentially. And at some longer tops, this can occur over 3-6 months. But at important market bottoms (August to October 2011) the signal extremes can occur much faster, sometimes in as little as 10-12 days. 

For most clients, my goal is to:

  • Help preserve capital during difficult times, (e.g. bear markets, crashes, severe corrections). For conservative investors, this means reducing equity exposure, and raising cash. For more aggressive clients, inverse ETF positions may be suggested if certain short-term top signals develop. 
  • Suggest a heavily or fully invested equity position after a serious market decline. My proprietary indicators for market bottoms have worked particularly well since (and including) the 2008-09 major low. 
  • Identify market sectors that may be unusually attractive or risky, like technology, biotechnology, growth stocks, and small caps. In the current market, small caps have been particularly unattractive to hold ever since March. 
  • Give actionable intermediate or trading signals within a longer cycle, whether it’s a bull or bear market. And these may involve specific market sectors. 


All clients are dealt with according to their individual needs and investment approach. And I try to gear my services to be most helpful to each client. There is no “one size fits all” type newsletter in my service.

In essence, my goal is to make you a more successful investor, optimizing performance over time. As stated above, I will configure my market signals to your investment approach and needs.  My service should complement your investment strategy, and be utilized in conjunction with advisory/research sources you currently use. My reports often include charts to more effectively communicate my proprietary market indicators. These graphics clearly show the threshold levels that I use to generate actionable signals. 

The price for the individual investor service is $1700 per year, payable in advance. But I also have a quarterly rate of $575. The reports are all via email, with limited telephone consultations. For institutions, I offer a similar service from my quantitative work, but with considerably more phone interaction and support. The fee for this service is $4600 per year. The quarterly rate here is $1600.

If you have additional questions, please call 718-598-5034, or complete the contact form on this page.
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